Very well explained. This is my first chance to read your Substack, and it has done more to help me make sense of the fighting than anything previous.
Given the vast differences from WW2, Korea, or even Vietnam, it's understandable that hardly anyone in the West has even begun to grasp the considerations explained here.
Excellent piece. Hopefully it is common reading at Quantico. If not, there will be a lot of needless casualties when they are called to fight anyone more organized than armed goatherds.
And mofos who have never shot at a moving target don’t understand how difficult it is to hit a guy on a motorbike doing 50-60mph across a field.
I’ve read reports from Ukrainians stating that the Russians often mass a squad or platoon by moving 1-3 guys at a time. Not a big enough number to waste a drone on, and then all of a sudden there’s a full squad assaulting a house when they all pop out of their forward hidey positions.
The solution to dispersion requiring “mass” of fires, drones, EW or as necessary people is Swarming then Dispersing again in pulses classic to swarming tactics and behavior.
Though I'm not sure that swarming is the right word choice that I'd use. To me, it has too many controversial military connotations, especially associated with Iranian doctrine, that involve decentralized command and control.
I recently read a RAND report titled "Swarming & The Future of Conflict" and it said this:
"A military that wants to conduct swarming, either of fire or in force, will have to habituate itself to the devolution of a great deal of command and control authority to a large number of small maneuver units."
Swarming is ancient. Pulsing in and out attacks, swarming is attacking on multiple axis of attack (say 5 axis) and withdrawing. You could think Parthian or Mongol cavalry.
For that matter Woolly Mammoth 🦣 hunts.
Modern sense; flash mobs, U Boat Wolfpacks. Absolutely true
We need to mass and disperse from any available angle. Dispersion is essential as remaining concentrated will bring overwhelming artillery, drone, air, missile strikes.
Great discussion and very important. I believe that trying to move through the 'Recon-Fires Complex,' in good order is key issue in modern minor tactics. Specifically, fighting a near-peer enemy that can jam, spoof or shut down your digital coms. Probably, the reason why RAND is highlighting 'mission command' C2 models. Excellent article and discussion, thanks.
Please forgive this comment. But would some kind of small aerial transport address some of these issues? There are quadcopter drones capable of transporting 500lbs. Rather than motorbikes, what about 10 quadcopter drones, each transporting two soldiers and associated weaponry?
It's possible. I'm not sure about drones carrying them, I just don't know enough about the technology, but I saw this pop up in my Youtube feed a few months back and it's similar in concept:
I was a few beers deep at the time I saw it, but I remember thinking to myself that a jet pack infantry battalion equipped with those could raise quite a bit of Hell in Ukraine, if those things worked as advertised.
Thanks , your article orthogonally spurred this in response, although it’s dealing with the rear area battle - restoring LOC mobility by counter reconnaissance networked swarming.
Very well explained. This is my first chance to read your Substack, and it has done more to help me make sense of the fighting than anything previous.
Given the vast differences from WW2, Korea, or even Vietnam, it's understandable that hardly anyone in the West has even begun to grasp the considerations explained here.
Excellent piece. Hopefully it is common reading at Quantico. If not, there will be a lot of needless casualties when they are called to fight anyone more organized than armed goatherds.
I'm raising my hand. Great work by the way very happy I subscribed 😀.
And mofos who have never shot at a moving target don’t understand how difficult it is to hit a guy on a motorbike doing 50-60mph across a field.
I’ve read reports from Ukrainians stating that the Russians often mass a squad or platoon by moving 1-3 guys at a time. Not a big enough number to waste a drone on, and then all of a sudden there’s a full squad assaulting a house when they all pop out of their forward hidey positions.
The solution to dispersion requiring “mass” of fires, drones, EW or as necessary people is Swarming then Dispersing again in pulses classic to swarming tactics and behavior.
I definitely agree with the principle.
Though I'm not sure that swarming is the right word choice that I'd use. To me, it has too many controversial military connotations, especially associated with Iranian doctrine, that involve decentralized command and control.
I recently read a RAND report titled "Swarming & The Future of Conflict" and it said this:
"A military that wants to conduct swarming, either of fire or in force, will have to habituate itself to the devolution of a great deal of command and control authority to a large number of small maneuver units."
Is that what you mean by swarming?
Swarming is ancient. Pulsing in and out attacks, swarming is attacking on multiple axis of attack (say 5 axis) and withdrawing. You could think Parthian or Mongol cavalry.
For that matter Woolly Mammoth 🦣 hunts.
Modern sense; flash mobs, U Boat Wolfpacks. Absolutely true
We need to mass and disperse from any available angle. Dispersion is essential as remaining concentrated will bring overwhelming artillery, drone, air, missile strikes.
For this problem I mean exactly this;
https://open.substack.com/pub/thelongnetwarred/p/rear-area-security-and-counter-reconnaissance?r=91o16&utm_medium=ios
Great discussion and very important. I believe that trying to move through the 'Recon-Fires Complex,' in good order is key issue in modern minor tactics. Specifically, fighting a near-peer enemy that can jam, spoof or shut down your digital coms. Probably, the reason why RAND is highlighting 'mission command' C2 models. Excellent article and discussion, thanks.
"why RAND is highlighting 'mission command' C2 models"
Can you provide a link to that discussion?
I will go back and try to locate it. Sorry. Should have put a link and am now going back through my history to find it.
Please forgive this comment. But would some kind of small aerial transport address some of these issues? There are quadcopter drones capable of transporting 500lbs. Rather than motorbikes, what about 10 quadcopter drones, each transporting two soldiers and associated weaponry?
It's possible. I'm not sure about drones carrying them, I just don't know enough about the technology, but I saw this pop up in my Youtube feed a few months back and it's similar in concept:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkZPI5m9SIE
I was a few beers deep at the time I saw it, but I remember thinking to myself that a jet pack infantry battalion equipped with those could raise quite a bit of Hell in Ukraine, if those things worked as advertised.
That is wild. I've seen that tech before, but either they have refined it or the operators are getting far more skilled.
Thanks , your article orthogonally spurred this in response, although it’s dealing with the rear area battle - restoring LOC mobility by counter reconnaissance networked swarming.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thelongnetwarred/p/rear-area-security-and-counter-reconnaissance?r=91o16&utm_medium=ios
Excellent article.
Perhaps another answer is a War of Reconnaissance ~ Counter Reconnaissance?
Reverse the Drone - ISR - Strike cycle against them then restore maneuver with as little direct flesh as the “mass” as needed?
The main effort effected with economy of force.
Which means economy of Flesh.