Just wanted to say I've been a long time follower of you on Reddit whenever you have contributions on the likes of r/WarCollege. It's fantastic to see you start a substack where you can convey your thoughts and information in a more structure format that's more on your terms. I've been reading your posts in order and been enjoying all of them. I suspect your NGSW article will trigger my keyboard fingers (due to vehement agreement).
Interesting analysis. At the point of Bakhmut my memory of the 2022 news is a bit different. I wonder what you think about that.
After the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops briefly entered Seversk and then withdrew. One factor that was named was that behind Seversk there was open space where the Russian troops would be vulnerable. There was also fear that Ukrainian control of surrounding hills could make a conquest of the city hard.
Bakhmut was described by the Russians as the strongest point in the Ukrainian defense. The professed goal of the attack was the "grinding" of the Ukrainian forces.
Note that at this point of the war Ukraine was much stronger with drones. And thanks to American satellite information the Himars were a feared weapon. Both drones and Himars are not very effective inside cities and by moving the battle to a city Russia thus somewhat neutralized them.
After the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops briefly entered Seversk and then withdrew.
When was that? My understanding was that the fall-back line after retreating out of the Siversky Donets River line as based on the hills to the east of Siversk-Bakhmut. While Wagner made progress (slow and costly) to get through that line (hinged by Soledar), they barely moved forward towards Siversk, until fairly recently.
While I'm sure Wagner and the RU MOD took great advantage of the AFU's refusal to accept military common sense around Bakhmut and retreat to better ground, they were already set on attacking it since late July 2022. Even Wagner's prison recruitment program, which was almost surely tied to their contract to take Bakhmut, started early enough that the decision to attack Bakhmut had to be made earlier, likely June. Which means before the Ukrainians even retreated out of Lyschansk, which was going to happen eventually after the Popasna breakthrough, they were already prepping for the next mission, one that was required to achieve their territorial goal of "liberating the Donbas."
That's my take at least. I could be wrong, but the evidence points that way for me.
I am just following the conflict closely on Telegram. What I remember was that shortly after the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops entered Seversk. It may have been just some DRG's, I don't know about that. If you look on the map Seversk was the logical next step as it lies straight west from Lysychansk. Bakhmut is much more to the south.
I don't know about fall back lines. They are seldom discussed on Telegram.
The logical way to conquer cities to conquer the surrounding area first - cutting the supply lines. The strange thing about Bakhmut was that Russia didn't do that. So they had an endless fight that only ended shortly after they conquered Soledar.
What you write seems to imply that you see conquering Bakhmut as a better way to "liberate the Donbass" than conquering Seversk. But it is not clear to me why.
Just wanted to say I've been a long time follower of you on Reddit whenever you have contributions on the likes of r/WarCollege. It's fantastic to see you start a substack where you can convey your thoughts and information in a more structure format that's more on your terms. I've been reading your posts in order and been enjoying all of them. I suspect your NGSW article will trigger my keyboard fingers (due to vehement agreement).
An excellent write-up on the Wagner convict troops.
Interesting analysis. At the point of Bakhmut my memory of the 2022 news is a bit different. I wonder what you think about that.
After the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops briefly entered Seversk and then withdrew. One factor that was named was that behind Seversk there was open space where the Russian troops would be vulnerable. There was also fear that Ukrainian control of surrounding hills could make a conquest of the city hard.
Bakhmut was described by the Russians as the strongest point in the Ukrainian defense. The professed goal of the attack was the "grinding" of the Ukrainian forces.
Note that at this point of the war Ukraine was much stronger with drones. And thanks to American satellite information the Himars were a feared weapon. Both drones and Himars are not very effective inside cities and by moving the battle to a city Russia thus somewhat neutralized them.
After the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops briefly entered Seversk and then withdrew.
When was that? My understanding was that the fall-back line after retreating out of the Siversky Donets River line as based on the hills to the east of Siversk-Bakhmut. While Wagner made progress (slow and costly) to get through that line (hinged by Soledar), they barely moved forward towards Siversk, until fairly recently.
While I'm sure Wagner and the RU MOD took great advantage of the AFU's refusal to accept military common sense around Bakhmut and retreat to better ground, they were already set on attacking it since late July 2022. Even Wagner's prison recruitment program, which was almost surely tied to their contract to take Bakhmut, started early enough that the decision to attack Bakhmut had to be made earlier, likely June. Which means before the Ukrainians even retreated out of Lyschansk, which was going to happen eventually after the Popasna breakthrough, they were already prepping for the next mission, one that was required to achieve their territorial goal of "liberating the Donbas."
That's my take at least. I could be wrong, but the evidence points that way for me.
I am just following the conflict closely on Telegram. What I remember was that shortly after the fall of Lysychansk Russian troops entered Seversk. It may have been just some DRG's, I don't know about that. If you look on the map Seversk was the logical next step as it lies straight west from Lysychansk. Bakhmut is much more to the south.
I don't know about fall back lines. They are seldom discussed on Telegram.
The logical way to conquer cities to conquer the surrounding area first - cutting the supply lines. The strange thing about Bakhmut was that Russia didn't do that. So they had an endless fight that only ended shortly after they conquered Soledar.
What you write seems to imply that you see conquering Bakhmut as a better way to "liberate the Donbass" than conquering Seversk. But it is not clear to me why.