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Frank Revelo's avatar

>The Russian invasion of Ukraine was one of the worst in modern history. That’s not hyperbole, it was horribly planned and executed even worse.

Completely opposite of reality. Russia was well aware that Ukraine had an enormous and well equipped and fortified army in Donbas, much too big for the initial Russian invasion force. There was thus a two part plan:

a) Threaten Kyiv and hopefully shock Ukraine into carrying through with Minsk 2 (no NATO, end of war in Donbas, regional autonomy, etc). This part of the plan worked well enough to get Zelensky to the negotiating table in Istanbul one month after the invasion, but then the British convinced Zelensky to back away, so ultimately this part of the plan failed. If this plan had fully succeeded, it would be a brilliant example of winning without fighting (or at least without fighting much).

b) Capture land bridge to Crimea. This part succeeded brilliantly and the "worst in modern history" failure was on the part of Ukraine (both Zaluzhny and Zelensky/Yermak) in allowing Russia to drive so easily and quickly to the Dnieper (and even beyond until the later retreat). Without success in this part of the plan, Russia would have lost Crimea, thus causing doubts in Putin's leadership. Once the land bridge captured, Russia slowly but surely put the attrition machine to work.

Your criticisms of the poor state of the 2022 Russian military are valid. But that's what happens when a military doesn't fight a big war for many decades and furthermore faces budget constraints. Union army was dreadful initially in the USA Civil War. USA was dreadful in its first campaigns in North Africa in WW2. Etc.

In any case, attrition war is unfortunately necessary to "win hearts and minds", though not in the way that phrase is usually used. For there to be lasting peace, either Russia or Ukraine must be beaten so badly that one army loses the will to fight and capitulates to the other side. That takes many years of grinding attrition and massive casualties. That's what it took to end the USA Civil War, WW1, WW2 and other big attrition wars.

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